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October 31, 2007

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Bull Spreads

I’ve been focusing on mastering spreads for a while now because every other strategy is either a combination of spreads a just another type of spread. So, really understanding how spreads work and why is key to understanding all the other strategies.

Now, I know that there are bullish spreads and bearish spreads, and that some are credit spreads and others are debit spreads.  I also know that generally we’re talking about going long with two options in the same month but different strikes.  Or, going short with two options in the same month but two different strikes.

But what I don’t yet feel comfortable with is deciding between a bull call spread or a bull put spread (if I’m bullish that is). Or, if I’m bearish should I go with the bear call spread or the bear put spread?  Also, what are the general rules for what strike to buy, where should the greeks be, and how far/close to expiration I should place the trade???

Here are some of my notes from a recent class about spreads:

What is a spread?
An option strategy where you buy and sell options in a 1:1 ratio — as one trade. It’s a “vertical spread” because the options are spread between two different strike prices.  On the quote board  (back in the olden days) prices would be listed vertically –> hence the term “vertical spread”

Why use a spread?

  1. They’re cost effective. Because you’re selling one of the options, it’s offsetting the cost of the one you’re buying and thus reducing the whole cost of the trade.  This is good way to trade the more expensive stocks/options.
  2. It’s also good premium collection strategy


Two types:

  1. Long vertical spread: call spread  — this will also generate a debit
  2. Short vertical spread: sell the put spread  — this will generate a credit

General Rules:

  • Buy the options in a spread always in a 1:1 ratio
  • Have a directional bias for the stock and a reason for that bias

Construction:

Bull call spread: Buy low, sell high…

  • Buy the lower strike call
  • Sell the higher strike call

Bull put spread: same thing but with puts

  • Buy the lower strike put
  • Sell the higher strike put

… just remember BLSH = Buy Low, Sell High    … which sounds like BULLISH

October 28, 2007

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Futures are up, VIX is down…

should be a bull day — we’ll see..

October 28, 2007

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What I’m Reading Now

Just started reading, Options Trading 101 by Bill Johnson.  I’ve attended Bill’s classes and recently met him at the Options University Workshop.  Great guy and he has a talent for explaining options in a way that is crystal clear especially for beginners.  The first time I heard him speak I was blown away by how much I had learned in a single class.

I’m only on the first chapter but so far the book is great.  It will partly be a review for me (for stuff I know) and partly help me understand certain things I’m still need to have a better grasp of such as volatility, hedging, and spreads.

October 25, 2007

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QQQQs in an Upward Trend

Regardless of day-to-day volatility, the QQQQs are still in a strong uptrend and don’t show signs of slowing down.  In fact, I’ve heard several times of the past month that technology is where it’s at — and the QQQQs are have alot of great tech stocks.

  • It’s trading above it’s 50-day moving average
  • It’s trading in a very steep channel and despite an occasional dip, it generally stays within the channel

October 24, 2007

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Term of the Day — Delta

Delta
The amount by which the price of an option changes for every dollar move in the underlying instrument.

Yahoo! Options Glossary

October 24, 2007

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Technical Signals for Stocks Ready to Move

Just attended a webinar on finding stocks that are primed to go ballistic.  Here are my notes:

  1. Price is above the 10, 50, 200 day moving averages
  2. Trade with the larger, longer term trend — moving averages help you do that
  3. Look for short corrections in a longer term trend
  4. Look at stock’s volume relative to its normal volume.  If it has 3 times it’s normal volume in the first hour of the day — it’s primed to move
  5. Look for the three moving averages to meet at a point.  When moving averages start to separate and stock is above the 10 day, watch it very closely.  This is likely a reversal signal.
  6. 3 day pivot numbers:      stock above = bullish,   stock below = bearish

October 24, 2007

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New Trade Placed

Just bought a QQQQ DEC 07 50 call @ 4.92.   Main criteria I used was a delta of .75 or higher seeing that the QQQQs had take a small little dip but overall seem to going up.  I’ve paper traded this strategy before and it worked out really well.

On another note, just heard out that Price Headley is a guest speaker on today’s Think or Swim chat.  The session is titled, “Identifying Technical Turning Points and Key Sector Trends”.

October 21, 2007

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Thoughts about ETFs

ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) by now are pretty common place.  SO, wouldn’t it be nice if our 401(k)s could have ETFs in them instead of mutual funds? Not sure how soon (if ever) we’ll see that because if it did happen what would the Vanguards of the world do?

Okay, fine.  But, given the huge advantages over mutual funds they’re definitely the way to go if you want diversification, a better return, and tired of all the extra fees that come with mutual funds.

Here’s a quick review of the advantages ETFs have over mutual funds:

  • Available for all major indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Russell)
  • Available for all major sectors and countries (Oil, China)
  • Lower expenses because they’re index based — not actively managed
  • Can be traded throughout the day — not just at the end of the day
  • Can be shorted without an up-tick
  • Options available on most ETFs

ETF Watch List

  • Broad market indices (DIA, SPY, QQQQ, IWM, MDY)
  • Sectors (Energy, Health Care, Semiconductors)
  • International (Japan, China, Brazil)
  • Other Asset Classes (Commodities, Treasury Bonds, Currencies)

What Makes a Good ETF?

  • High volume and consequently, liquidity
  • Economic factors occurring (ie, emerging markets, rising oil prices, etc.)
  • Hot markets and/or healthy indices (technology, Nasdaq)

Good ETFs to Trade Now:

Symbol Name Underlying
Broad Market Indices
DIA Diamonds Dow Jones 30
SPY Spiders S&P 500
QQQQ QQQQ’s Nasdaq 100
IWM Russell 2000 Russell 2000
Commodities
IAU iShares Comex Gold Trust Gold
DBA Db Agri Index Agriculture
Currencies
FXE Currency Shares Euro Trust Euro
FXA Currencyshares Australian Australian dollar
FXC Currencyshares Canadian Canadian dollar
Countries
EWZ iShares Brazil Index Fund Brazil
FXI iShares FTSE/Xinhua 25 China
ILF iShares S&P Latam 40 Index Latin America
Sectors
OIH Oil Service Holdrs Trust Oil
XLK SPDR Tech Sector Technology

ETF Resources

October 21, 2007

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A Pleasant Surprise.. and Another Lesson Learned

I just closed a bear put spread on Pulte Homes that I opened in Sept.  My thinking at the time was that the stock was in a freefall and the housing market was not going to make a spectacular comeback in a month.  So, I placed a bearish trade that would be profitable if PHM moved anywhere below 15 and reach it’s maximum profit at 12.  I was sure it would hit 12.  I was wrong.  But, it did go down and that’s all I needed.  For a while there I was sure this was a losing trade and a hard lesson learned.  It may not have gone to 12 but it went low enough and since I had held on until expiration day I had the time value to make up most of the profit.

9/10, Bought Bear Put Spread

BUY 4 PHM OCT 07 15P
SELL 4 PHM OCT 07 12.5P
Debit 0.80
Cost of trade:  $320

10/10, Sold Bear Put Spread

SELL 4 PHM OCT 07 15P
BUY 4 PHM OCT 07 12.5P
Credit 1.15

Credit to account:  $460
Profit:  $140, 43.75%

Wow!  Here’s a trade that I’ve been regretting for weeks now because I was sure I’d lose my whole investment — any my trading account isn’t that big!

Instead, I got 43.75% return.  That’s not bad.

So, what did I learn:

  • I didn’t really understand the Bear Put Spread strategy.
  • Never trade a strategy I don’t understand.
  • Options are great, even a small movement can have a great ROI so better to not be gready holding out for the biggest profit possible.
  • I’m not a bear but I still need to work on how to trade like one

October 14, 2007

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Pop Quiz

Q:  Which option has the most time value?

A:  The ATM option — every time

…when you’re selling options — sell ATM because it has the most extrinsic value.