Why I don’t listen to stock analysts..

This is so funny!  It’s a few videos strung together before the housing crisis hit (or any of the others crisis’) and ALL of the “experts” except one (Peter Schiff) are saying how there’s no problem, the economy is stronger than ever, subprime is a blip, yada, yada, yada…  I’ve always known that most analysts on TV don’t really know what they’re talking about and this is perfect example of that.  I do love it though when I get a chance to see traders speaking on TV like anyone from thinkorswim, or Price Headley or anyone else like that but most of these talking heads really are clueless.

But, after watching this I’m definitely adding Peter Schiff to my list of people to trust.

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Rolling and Morphing Class

Options University is starting a new 6 month class about managing positions by rolling and morphing. I finally got around to watching the preview webinar and was REALLY impressed.  Great stuff especially for a free webinar with lots meaty material.

Don’t know how long they’ll leave it up since the classes are starting soon so if you want to watch it do it soon.

Click here to watch the Trade the Position webinar

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Bear Market Getting Worse

Looks like we broke support on the Dow yesterday and I got several emails this morning about how this could be the worse day ever in stock market history.

Here’s what I got from David Elliott and he’s usually right about these things:

Look for a gap down open for the Indexes today.
England has posted a quarterly break of GDP of .5% in overnight.
This has crushed Asian and European markets overnight.
And is sending US futures down large percentages in the pre market.
Look for the Futures test the DJ 8199 area in pre market, and the opening move for the DJ to test and break it.

The wedge pattern that the markets have made the last 10 days should break down to new market lows for this bear market.

One thing this market has done for me is made me more comfortable trading the downside. A year ago it just didn’t feel natural. But since then I’m have several successful trades. I’ve lost too but done okay with the downside trades.

  • buying puts in BAC and ABX
  • selling a call spread in Google (in July when they had really bad earnings and dropped 50 points!)
  • buying calls in DOG at a 85 delta and rolling down as needed

I’m also hearing the tech is the next sector to feel some real pain — more than it already has.. and this thing is going to domino through all the sectors. So, I’m looking for more opportunities to buy puts and starting to pay more attention to Elliott Wave theory. I have some great articles that I’ll post soon.

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Too Funny Not To Pass Along…

A photoblog of traders and brokers having a bad day.  Guess I shouldn’t laugh but it did make me laugh.  I’m filing this under Lessons Learned…

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Video about Gold

If you’re trading gold through GLD or maybe the spot market, or through mining stocks — you need to see this video:

Gold Video

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Blog Moved Finished… mostly

Two days later the blog is finally moved to WordPress.  A few details still to take care of but the heavy lifting is done.

One thing that I couldn’t help is that the RSS feed changed, so if you’re using that you’ll need to resubscribe or update your link.

The new link is:  http://www.newoptiontraderblog.com/feed

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Oh the pain… starting the move to WordPress — it’s not fun

I’ve been looking into how the move to WordPress would be for several months and have put it off this long because it’s such a pain.  EVERYTHING is manual and you lose pagerank in the process!  I was hoping that something would change by the time I had to do it but no, it’s all still the same pain in the ass it was when I planned on doing it a few months ago.  But, now time has run out and if I don’t get off of Typepad they’ll bill be for another year.

So, blog will likely be down for most of the day but hopefully back up by tomorrow morning — or later tonight.

Word of advice: if you’re even thinking of starting a blog just go right to WordPress — either WordPress.com or a self-hosted version so you don’t have a major project on your hands later if you decide you want to move it which there’s a very good chance you will since alot of people want more control and better SEO after awhile.

Update:
The move is now done but there’s still some funkyness I’m working on but plus need to add all the plugins a few pages, and might just change the theme… not sure about this one..

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DOG for a falling DJIA

If you think there’s more pain ahead for the Dow, then buying DOG which is an inverse ETF for DJIA might be a good idea.

This morning I bought a DOG NOV 72 call with an 82 delta.  I’m doing a stock replacement strategy and plan on rolling down when the delta goes above 85.   This strategy of ITM calls with 80-85 deltas and rolling to keep that delta has worked well for me before.. We’ll see how it works out.

On another note, DEFINITELY moving this blog this weekend!  If anyone has experience moving from Typepad to WordPress please pass along any gotchas I should know of now..

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Update…

Apologies for disappearing for the last several months.  Some pretty significant things have been happening since my last post and I’m not even talking about the credit crunch, debt collapse, and general market craziness.

  1. Got laid off in February (along with 1,000 other people at large internet search company..)
  2. Took a 2 month consulting job that turned into a 4 month consulting job
  3. Joined  a forex coaching group — LOVE forex trading and looking forward to trading options on forex.

What’s Next?

  1. Regarding trading?  I’m looking for opportunities to trade puts.  Think there’s still more pain to come so want to be on the right side of that.  Will post more often as I work with long puts and put spreads
  2. I’ll be moving this blog to WordPress this weekend.  It’s on Typepad now.  My subscription is up and Typepad just isn’t meeting my needs anymore.  Everything should go smoothly but would appreciate any good thoughts you can send my way…
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Our Dollar is Dying

Have you guys heard about this? The dollar is so weak that some stores in New York are accepting Euros!  The video below also talks about how some parts of India will not accept dollars!  Whoa…

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